A new chapter chapter is possible???

As the US and India bask in the glow of a rejuvenated friendship, a civilian nuclear deal that may finally deliver what it first promised in 2006 and some small-scale military deals, the feeling in certain quarters in Pakistan may be one of acute discomfort. After all, it does look like the world’s largest democracy and the world’s foremost advocate of democracy have more in common economically, diplomatically, and geo-strategically than anything the Pak-US relationship has to offer. To put it more bluntly, where the India-US relationship is seemingly about smiles and opportunities, the Pak-India relationship is about grimaces and perceptions of threat. However, the simplistic, reactionary approach would miss the perhaps historic opportunity that a closer diplomatic, economic and military relationship between India and the US could create: it will surely be in the interest of both those sides tonudge the India-Pakistan relationship towards normality.

Consider first the incentive for the American side. A conflagration in South Asia is fundamentally against American interest, not least as is expands its search for markets in India. In addition, for all the focus on a rising India being a counterweight to China on the eastern side of Asia, there are plenty of security interest that Pakistan sits at the center of on the western side of Asia, from Afghanistan to Iran and from the Central Asian Republics to the tensions internal to Muslim societies in the Gulf. Not only have successive US administrations made it clear that Pakistan is a needed ally in the new century, it is also quite clear that India and Pakistan have their own roles to play in their respective spheres. Consider then what closer ties between Delhi and Washington could mean: instead of the two ganging up on Pakistan on issues of security and Pakistan-based militancy, the incentives really are for the US to use its influence over India to try and push for the resumption of dialogue between New Delhi  and Islamabad.

Of course, India will likely try and resist any such attempts by the US and the Modi government will certainly like to keep the pressure on. But international relations have a logic that goes beyond the wishes of a new leader, no matter how charismatic or ambitious. The Modi foreign policy team is largely made up of novices on the international stage: while they do seem to understand the logic of business and economics, they have struggled with security equations. Pakistan certainly needs to do more – much more – to placate the outside world about its conce.